Gold and Silver Snap Their Losing Streak as Weak Jobs Data Rewrites Fed Bets

Gold and silver are closing out the week on their strongest footing in over a month, pulling both metals out of a rough patch that had defined much of the past several weeks. A surprisingly soft U.S. jobs report has reshuffled the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve, and precious metals were the biggest beneficiaries.

The Numbers (in Indian Rupees)

International spot prices converted at the prevailing mid-market rate of roughly ₹95.25 per US Dollar:

• Gold spot price: around ₹12,805 per gram, or roughly ₹1,28,050 per 10 grams — up about 1.25% on the day and on pace for a weekly gain of nearly 2.3%, its first positive week in five.
• Silver spot price: around ₹192/gram, or roughly ₹1,92,300 per kilogram — up nearly 3% on the day, with a weekly advance of about 6.7%, comfortably outrunning gold.
• Gold/silver ratio: narrowed to about 66.5, reflecting silver's outsized reaction to shifting rate expectations compared with gold.

Note: These are international (London/COMEX) spot-equivalent prices converted to INR. Actual domestic prices on MCX or at Indian jewellers will differ, since they include import duty, GST, and local premiums/discounts on top of the international rate.

For context, both metals are still digesting a brutal stretch: after gold and silver rallied 66% and 135%, respectively, in 2025, this year has been far choppier, with gold down modestly and silver down by a much steeper margin year-to-date following a sharp correction earlier in 2026.

What Moved the Market

The catalyst was Thursday's June nonfarm payrolls report, which landed well short of expectations:

• Only 57,000 jobs were added in June, versus forecasts near 110,000–115,000.
• April and May figures were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs — one of the weakest payroll quarters in recent memory.
• The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, largely because workers exited the labor force rather than found jobs.
• Wage growth edged higher to roughly 3.5% year-over-year.

That combination — fewer jobs, weaker momentum, but not an outright recession signal — was enough to convince traders that the Fed has less room to raise rates later this year. Odds of a September rate hike, as tracked by futures markets, slid from roughly two-thirds before the report to closer to a coin-flip afterward.

Adding to the dovish tone, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used an appearance at the ECB's forum in Sintra, Portugal, to note that inflation risks "have come down," while still stressing the central bank's commitment to price stability. Lower rate-hike odds mean a lower opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver — a direct tailwind for both metals this week.

A secondary, quieter driver: easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Continued progress in indirect U.S.-Iran talks has allowed oil shipping through the strait to recover, pulling crude prices lower and further cooling inflation worries — another supportive thread for the metals complex.

The Bigger Picture

This week's bounce doesn't erase a difficult 2026 for precious metals so far. Gold touched an eight-month low before this week's rebound and remains well off the record highs above $5,300 it set in January. Silver, similarly, spent much of the past week pinned below the closely watched $60 level for the first time since December.

Central bank buying has remained a steady undercurrent through the volatility, continuing to run net-positive through the first half of the year and providing a floor even as speculative flows have been choppier.

What Analysts Are Watching Next

Forecasts on where gold and silver go from here diverge sharply:

• More cautious desks see gold averaging in the low-to-mid $4,300s through the third quarter before a gradual move higher later in the year.
• More bullish houses continue to flag $5,200–$6,300 price targets for gold by the end of 2026, pointing to central bank demand and the possibility of eventual rate cuts as the key swing factors.
• For silver, some forecasters expect a push back toward the $70 range later this year, followed by a pullback in 2027 as industrial demand growth normalizes.

The wide range of forecasts underscores how sensitive metals pricing has become to each new data point — this week's jobs report is a good example of how quickly sentiment can turn. Traders will now be watching upcoming inflation data and any further Fed commentary for confirmation that the September meeting is genuinely in play for a lower-rate outcome, which would likely extend this week's gains.